MyDD :: Clinton Ends February In The Red

Clinton Ends February In The Red

by Walt Starr, Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 01:43:03 PM EST

The real story of the Clinton fund raising and financial management is hidden deep within the numbers.

It all lookms good on the surface, but the problems surface when you start trying to figure out how much she has to spend on the primary.

First, the summary...

6. Cash on Hand at BEGINNING of the Reporting Period	29186341.35
7. Total Receipts This Period	35826665.44
8. Subtotal (6 + 7)	65013006.79
9. Total Disbursements This Period	31838144.63
10. Cash on Hand at CLOSE of the Reporting Period	33174862.16
11. Debts and Obligations Owed TO the Committee	0.00
&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Itemize all on SCHEDULE C or SCHEDULE D
12. Debts and Obligations Owed BY the Committee	8733609.11
&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Itemize all on SCHEDULE C or SCHEDULE D
13. Expenditures Subject To Limitation	0.00
14. NET Contributions (Other than Loans)	152751866.28
15. NET Operating Expenditures	135762241.94

That looks pretty good. The COH of $33,174,862.16 sounds like quite a wad!

Here's the problem with that number.

1) $8,733,609.11 in outstanding debt. This brings the total down to $24,441,253.05. That's still a wad of money! But wait, there's more...

2) There's another number to take into account. That's her nearly. $22 million that can only be used in the General Election. Giving her the benefit of the doubt, that leaves less than $3 million for her to spend in the primaries. But wait, there's more...

3) You cannot leave out the $5 million loan she gave herself.

Bottom line, Hillary Clinton's campaign ended February more than $2,000,000 in the red.

By contrast, Obama ended February with more than $38.8 million cash on hand. About $8 million is GE only and about $625,000 in debt leaves Obama with just over $30,000,000 to spend on the primaries.

And it doesn't end there. Obama has received more than 925,000 donations to date in MArch. If we lower expectations on the average donation size from the February average of ~$75 down to $50, that's more than $2,000,000 per day. If he's maintaining a burn rate of $1.5 million per day, he's going to end March with more than $50 million on hand.

In the money race, Obama is the clear winner. Super Delegates will have no choice but to pay attention to these numbers.

UPDATE: Adding a a LINK to the FEC Form 3P Filed By The Clinton Campaign Last Night. These are real numbers folks. The numbers come from Hillary Clinton's campaign.

Tags: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama (all tags)

Permalink :: 39 Comments :: Post a Comment

Like Clinton will have any problem raising money (none / 0)

give me a break. More 'the supers will have to look at this and not at the Wright stuff'. Sure- keep telling yourself that.

by linc on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 01:45:44 PM EST

The numbers don't lie (2.00 / 0)

She ended the month in the red for the primaries. There is no way to counter that factually.

Meanwhile Obama proves he's got a money machine cranking it out while he runs a financially efficient operation. His burn rate does not exceed, or even meet, his rate of receivables.

And money is the name of the game in politics. Obama has proven his wide apeal equates to dollars in the bank. He proved it with his own campaign and he's proved it with Bill Foster's campaign.

Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.

by Walt Starr on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 01:49:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yep (1.00 / 0)

more cover for Obama/Wright or how about that gem yesterday when Obama called his grandmother a 'typical white person'- you know, racist.

by linc on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:13:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yep (2.00 / 0)

Man, you Clintonites have so few arrows in your quiver. It's always harping on the same couple of ridiculous points. It's like a broken record. (Wait, does that analogy even hold up anymore. A scratched CD? A corrupted MP3?)

John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.

by Travis Stark on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:45:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yep (none / 0)

That's a lie. He specifically said his grandmother was NOT racist. But that's the talking point today.

Bitter voter for change.

by Hope08 on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 03:18:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yep (none / 0)

That's why I wouldn't even respond to that post.

It's bait. I wouldn't take it.

:-D

Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.

by Walt Starr on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 03:27:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The numbers don't lie (none / 0)

Gee then why isn't Obama doing even better? He is awash with cash so he should just be crushing Hillary in the national polls, in PA in Wirginia. Wow this is a big story. And thanks Walt Hussein for bringing it up because you recall the what happened the last time Hillary was strapped for cash, she got a massive influx of donations. So thanks again Brother Hussein.

by coolofthenight on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:49:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The numbers don't lie (2.00 / 1)

Hmmmm.

Obama leads in pledged delegates. He leads in votes. He leads in states. He can lose every one of the remaining contests by 20% margins and would still lead in all of those metrics.

Yep, he's doing pretty crappy there alright.

Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.

by Walt Starr on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:57:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The numbers don't lie (none / 0)

With all those advantages he should be way out in front in all of the upcoming primaries don't ya think?

by coolofthenight on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 04:33:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Like Clinton will have any problem raising mon (2.00 / 0)

You in fact have no objective evidence that what he posits isn't true. Fund-raising is a hugely important part of presidential campaigning.

The Wright story fades over time; all scandals fade some over time. Fund-raising does not.

by Cycloptichorn on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 01:57:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Ends February In The Red (none / 0)

The only question is: what is Hillary doing in NY today? Facing the cold realities or putting down the kitchen sink and picking up the bathtub?

Money, pledged delegates, overall delegates, votes, states: Obama is ahead.

Even if you take in the Wright controversy, which has been bad. I think the party knows that the skeletons lurking in the Clinton closet are at least a close match.

Bitter voter for change.

by Hope08 on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 01:55:36 PM EST

Re: Clinton Ends February In The Red (none / 0)

Honestly? She usually travels back to New York to raise funds.

Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.

by Walt Starr on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:12:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh? (none / 0)

which ones are those? The Bosnia thing that is blatantly the Obama talking point today?

What scares me the most about Obama getting the nomination is that it took this long for the Wright issue to even come to light. We know everything, absolutely frickin' everything about the Clintons. Hell, according to you all and the wonderfully deceptive Obama campaign, we also know that are racist. Its out of the bag for the Clintons- what the hell else does Obama have in there?

by linc on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:16:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oh? (none / 0)

Really? Did you know Saudi Arabia gave Bill $10 million for the Clinton Library? Think there's no conflict of interest there?

John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.

by Travis Stark on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:47:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

They and the Emirates (none / 0)

probably also gave you or anyone else with a retirement fund some money too- or didn't you notice that its our rich ME allies that have been bailing out all of our banks.

So, what is your point and who is going to care in a general election against McCain when you compare it to the racism, sexism and anti-Americanism that is so closely tied to Obama if not coming directly from his own mouth, e.g. 'typical white person'?

by linc on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 05:54:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oh? (none / 0)

I learn new things about Hillary everyday. In Iowa she told us she was running from sniper fire at the airport in Bosnia. Today I find out it was a complete lie. Wright hid in plain sight for months. There is similar info out there regarding Hillary. As we saw this week it's about what the MSM decides to train their gaze on. No doubt that gaze will be fierce with each of our candidates.

Bitter voter for change.

by Hope08 on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 03:13:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This diary has no semblance of objectivity. (none / 0)

Saying she's in the red because she hasn't repaid her own loans?

Strike all comments to "being in the red" from this Obamamaniacal rant.

This is far from being an objective diary, IMHO.

Besides, last I checked, she was kicking butt in Pennsylvania.

How much will it cost the Dem's to counter $100m-$200m in Rethug 527 media time on Jeremiah Wright? Let's subtract that from the balance sheet in the GE if Obama's the nominee.

by bobswern on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 01:56:39 PM EST

Re: This diary has no semblance of objectivity. (none / 0)

The loans have to be repaid.

The outstanding debts have to be paid.

Her liquidity is depnendent upon her remaining in debt.

This is no different than how a budget deficit or surplus is calculated. It's also no different than how investors will examine a financial report of a campaony to ascertain overall viability.

It's Accounting 101.

Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.

by Walt Starr on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:11:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Tremendous irony to your comments... (none / 0)

Your tagline, in support of Foster: a Rahm/DCCC-handpicked, centrist candidate, spending $1.2 million against genuine progressive John Laesch's $120,000, and Foster barely edging Laesch in the primary, by a mere 300+/- votes. (Is Laesch still considering filing for a recount?)

Tremendous analogy to your position with regard to the presidential election, don't you think?

by bobswern on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 05:50:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Ends February In The Red (none / 0)

Not sure your analysis is right

The LA Times reported back in February that the Clinton campaign had already paid back the $5 million loan - so it is probably still in the black.

"Clinton has raised about $130 million, but she was recently compelled to loan her campaign $5 million out of her personal funds. (The campaign has since paid it back.) "

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la- na-hillary11feb11,0,7562049.story

That said, there is little question that Obama's fundraising and financial position remain stronger than Clinton's -- although it will be interesting to see how she has done since the March 4th primaries, which will probably have helped her ability to fundraise a great deal.

by lifelongdem on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 01:59:43 PM EST

Re: Clinton Ends February In The Red (none / 0)

It still shows up on her Detailed Summary

Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.

by Walt Starr on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:08:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Ends February In The Red (none / 0)

Also, Schedule C shows she has paid exactly 0

This is the FEC filing talking, not me.

Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.

by Walt Starr on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:26:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If the $5million wasn't repaid (none / 0)

by the end of the reporting period, it'd be part of the 8,733,609.11 in debts you'd already subtracted from COH.

Democratic Candidate, US Senate, Wisconsin 2012

by benmasel on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 04:16:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If the $5million wasn't repaid (none / 0)

Not true. Loans to the campaign from the candidate is a completely separate line item in the report from debts. The two are accounted for is separate Schedules.

For Debts and Obligations, refer to Schedule D.

Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.

by Walt Starr on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 04:29:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Ends February In The Red (none / 0)

"Besides, last I checked, she was kicking butt in Pennsylvania."

And how, she is kicking butt in PA! And in Ohio he outspent her 3:1 and she still kicked his butt there.

by 07rescue on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:00:43 PM EST

Re: Clinton Ends February In The Red (none / 0)

Wow this is now the second false diary written about Hillary's fundraising. Are Obama supporters really that desperate to sink her?

Asked and answered, I guess. She'll have no problem with money moving on. And considering that Obama has been outspending and outraising her and still lost in Ohio and Texas, hmm. Maybe money isn't the ultimate deciding factor here.

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:13:55 PM EST

Re: Clinton Ends February In The Red (none / 0)

Please, aquaint yourself with basic accounting, especially what balance sheets are.

Of the $33 million she reports as cash on hand, she cannot spend $22 million in the primaries. Of the remaining $11 million, 8.7 million goes to outstanding debt. She still owes herself $5 million.

Net value in the primaries is -$2.3 million.

It's basic accounting.

If I run a public company and have $100 million in cash, but hhave an outstanding debt of $300 million, nobody is going to want to buy my stock, or at least nobody who understands basic accounting any way. You'll always get suckers to buy a stock based upon emotions, but that does not drive much in the way of demand and it will not do anything to significantly increase the price of teh stock.

Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.

by Walt Starr on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:18:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Ends February In The Red (none / 0)

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la- na-hillary11feb11,0,7562049.story

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:50:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Ends February In The Red (none / 0)

Actually I withdraw that ... they updated the article to indicate that the loan has not been repaid. She did end Feb. with debt.

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:51:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Ends February In The Red (2.00 / 1)

First of all, Clinton clearded up that the loan was already payed back to her and even if it wasn't, it had to be listed in the given numbers above. In this case, the $8M you have posted as OWES to outstanding debt covers the $5M. You can't ignore debt and not put it on your report even if you owe yourself. You are deducting Owed by the committee and the $5 Million twice. She is still in the black.

It's plain accounting.

by mashews on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:55:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Ends February In The Red (none / 0)

I'll bite. Why is the diarist wrong?

John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.

by Travis Stark on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:48:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Ends February In The Red (none / 0)

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la- na-hillary11feb11,0,7562049.story

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:50:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Ends February In The Red (none / 0)

Actually I withdraw that ... they updated the article to indicate that the loan has not been repaid. She did end Feb. with debt.

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:51:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Ends February In The Red (2.00 / 1)

This article was written on FEBRUARY 11.

by mashews on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:57:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Ends February In The Red (none / 0)

As I said ... withdrawn and corrected. Yeesh!

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 03:48:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Ends February In The Red (none / 0)

I admit, I originally thought she ended up in the black with nearly $3 million, but I verified the status of her loan to herself on Schedule C of her filing.

Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.

by Walt Starr on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 03:53:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Ends February In The Red (none / 0)

maybe obama can buy some hope with all that money ;-)

by campskunk on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:30:33 PM EST

Easter Sale on thicker skin.... (none / 0)

...Obama's going to need it he expects to move forward. I hear there's a sale on at KMart this weekend.

"With every purchase of thicker skin, KMart's giving away an advance copy of Barack Obama's next book: 'How to Run For President On Just $1.5 Million A Day.' "

by bobswern on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 05:58:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Google ads showing with this are a hoot. (none / 0)

WI Bankruptcy Attorneys
Free Debt Consolidation
Instant Approval
Debt Management

I've never understood why any vendor would extend credit to a campaign. Too much history of defaults.

Democratic Candidate, US Senate, Wisconsin 2012

by benmasel on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:43:02 PM EST

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